Puig Does it Again and WPA

We all remember when exactly a week ago Yasiel Puig put the dagger in the Brewers season by doing this:

He pimped a home run that barely had the legs to make it to the other side of Miller Park.  Fast-forward a week and he is in game 4 of the World Series hitting a 3 run home run that blows the game open in a previous 1-0 LA ballgame.  He came up clutch and no doubt is critical to the Dodgers’ post-season.  While Puig did the damage with the home run, take a look at the current win probability added following the 6th inning.

Currently Turner who had the big double in the 6th to set up the eventual 3 run homer leads the game in WPA however Puigs swing with the highest single event of the game as expected with a WPA of .199.  WPA accounts for everything else Puig was involved in thus subtracting from that to get to his current .156.

 

 

 

 

I want to take a look at Bellinger here.  Hitting right before Puig, Belly ran out a ball that should have been a double play to end the inning.  He hugged the inside of the line and while Vazquez had to adjust to a high throw from Pierce, the hustle by Belly essentially managed to bring Puig to the plate.  While WPA does not account for this as he did not get a hit and an error is what caused the run to score, by hustling Belly made it an incredibly difficult play.

As I am typing this Mitch Moreland came of the bench to hit a 3 run dinger to pull within one. The percent change of the Dodgers winning this game went from 95.4% down to 78.3%.

Posted in: MLB

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