We all remember when exactly a week ago Yasiel Puig put the dagger in the Brewers season by doing this:
He pimped a home run that barely had the legs to make it to the other side of Miller Park. Fast-forward a week and he is in game 4 of the World Series hitting a 3 run home run that blows the game open in a previous 1-0 LA ballgame. He came up clutch and no doubt is critical to the Dodgers’ post-season. While Puig did the damage with the home run, take a look at the current win probability added following the 6th inning.
Currently Turner who had the big double in the 6th to set up the eventual 3 run homer leads the game in WPA however Puigs swing with the highest single event of the game as expected with a WPA of .199. WPA accounts for everything else Puig was involved in thus subtracting from that to get to his current .156.
I want to take a look at Bellinger here. Hitting right before Puig, Belly ran out a ball that should have been a double play to end the inning. He hugged the inside of the line and while Vazquez had to adjust to a high throw from Pierce, the hustle by Belly essentially managed to bring Puig to the plate. While WPA does not account for this as he did not get a hit and an error is what caused the run to score, by hustling Belly made it an incredibly difficult play.
As I am typing this Mitch Moreland came of the bench to hit a 3 run dinger to pull within one. The percent change of the Dodgers winning this game went from 95.4% down to 78.3%.